The highest annual level ever recorded, or 58 gigatons (GT), of greenhouse gas emissions will occur in 2022. 62 GT of emissions will be produced by 2030 if current trends in economic growth, demography, and emissions intensity hold true. There will be a more than 30 GT difference between actual emissions and what is required to meet the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 degrees or less above pre-industrial levels. We are aware of what needs to be done on a global scale. Over the next three decades, emissions must decrease by about 3 GT annually. Since we fell short of the goals in 2021 and 2022, the rate of emissions reduction must now be increased.
Tracking Emissions: Addressing the Gap between Targets and Reality
The World Emissions Clock, a brand-new tool unveiled at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, gives an overview of the problem on a worldwide scale. It offers two ideas to make tackling climate change more quantifiable and doable: First, there is a 2.6 GT implementation gap, which reflects the insufficient decrease in emissions compared to annualized pledges made in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Second, there is an ambition gap of 5.3 GT, which reflects the NDCs’ underperformance in comparison to the yearly decrease required to maintain a 1.5 degree trajectory. These calculations are based on a cutting-edge statistical model created by researchers from the Vienna University of Economics and Business and World Data Lab (WDL), which aims to produce accurate projections of GHG emissions under various assumptions.
The top line in Figure 1 presents an estimate of emissions based on an econometric Vector Autoregressive Model comprising five sectors (energy, industry, transportation, buildings, and agriculture and forestry) and 24 sub-sectors from 180 economies. There are no policy changes or other changes, only a continuation of previous trends. It demonstrates that total world emissions continue to rise. This can be compared to an estimate of emissions assuming all of the policy improvements pledged in countries’ NDCs are implemented.
Figure 1 illustrates how the implementation and ambition gaps will widen if nothing is done.
Source: World Data Lab, World Emissions Clock
Comparative Analysis: Understanding Per Capita Emissions by Country and Industry
Implementing NDCs would begin to cut emissions, but only by roughly 0.4 GT per year, which is far too slowly to meet the Paris Agreement target. The third line displays data from Integrated Assessment Models for a scenario that would maintain 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach, which were created by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna and their collaborators.
This framing also makes it easier to comprehend where developed and developing nations stand at COP27. While developing nations desire additional financial resources to remedy loss and damages and to achieve a balanced transition, developed countries want developing countries to be more ambitious with their NDCs.
A closer look at the statistics, however, reveals that labeling countries as developed or developing is not very useful. They are too different from one another. Instead, studying how other nations compare to one another can teach us a lot.
The per capita emissions of a few countries are shown in Figure 2 below, split down by key industry. While France and Italy have emissions that are below average for the world, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have emissions that are far over average. China is the largest emitter among developing nations overall, but not on a per capita basis (less than half of Canada, for example). India emits less than half of what the world average is.
Figure 2 shows that Saudi Arabia emits more than six times as much per person as India among the G20 economies.
Source: World Data Lab, World Emissions Clock)
Sustainable Solutions: Leading Countries in Building and Transportation Emissions
The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia are the three countries that produce the most fossil fuels globally, and the sector decompositions reveal that these nations have some of the highest levels of emissions from this sector per person. Large energy exporters include Saudi Arabia and Russia, while the United States only uses its energy domestically. The energy sector’s per capita emissions in the United States are roughly 4 times higher than in the United Kingdom and 8 times higher than in France, which mainly relies on nuclear power.
Energy emissions are also high in many emerging nations. South Africa produces more emissions per person than Japan despite frequent power outages and limited access to electricity. India and Indonesia still use very little power per person, but as their populations become more urbanized and wealthy, demand is rising quickly. If they proceed in the same direction as South Africa, which heavily relies on coal, it will be impossible to reach global goals.
The other significant industry where net emissions can be quickly decreased is agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU). Figure 2 shows that Brazil and Indonesia have high per capita emissions particular to this industry as a result of deforestation. But the graph also shows that, as a result of reforestation initiatives since the 1960s and climate-smart agricultural methods, South Korea is already a net carbon sink in terms of AFOLU.
Other cross-country comparisons illustrate what is possible with the available technology. Sweden is a pioneer in developing solutions that lower carbon emissions from buildings. It emits fewer greenhouse gases (GHGs) per person than the United States does. The Netherlands is a global leader in transportation, with high rates of mass transit use and a bicycle usage rate of over 30%. Due to its heavy reliance on air travel and the use of roads rather than rail, the United States performs particularly poorly in terms of transportation. High-income nations could reduce their GHG emissions by roughly two-thirds if they simply met the emissions intensity of the sector’s top performer.
The future path is significantly impacted by these comparisons. Without giving up economic growth, a thriving low-carbon future is achievable. Yes, emerging technologies like solar and offshore wind have great promise. However, there is already a path that can lead to high levels of wealth and low levels of carbon emissions thanks to existing technologies. Economic growth and GHG emissions can easily be separated from one another. High-income nations’ emissions levels are more influenced by lifestyle choices and political decisions. They should adopt low-emitting peer behaviors and benefit from technological advancements.
For governments and others attempting to match policymaking with their national climate action plans, the World Emissions Clock is a crucial resource. Giving global citizens a simple tool to use would help them to demand the necessary change and make better judgments. It can provide insight into the discussion about how to cut emissions and point out likely areas where quick progress might be made. It is possible to learn valuable lessons regarding workable solutions by looking at what other nations have done. That is the strength of detailed, contrasting data.
